The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped crucial oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers hardly ever step forward to advance their careers), a surge on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the possible to toss governments' long-term planning into chaos.
Whatever the truth, rising long term international needs appear particular to outstrip production in the next years, particularly provided the high and increasing costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a situation, ingredients and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this technology to the leading edge, one of the richest potential production locations has actually been totally overlooked by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to end up being a major player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have largely prevented their ability to capitalize rising worldwide energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their heightened requirement to create winter electrical energy has actually resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn severely impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based on my discussions with Central Asian federal government authorities, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those durable financiers happy to bank on the future, particularly as a plant native to the area has actually already proven itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational performance ability and prospective business practicality.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another bonus offer of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially fine animals feed prospect that is recently getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a large range of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create issues in germination to attain an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's potential could enable Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the nation's efforts at agrarian reform considering that achieving self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-dependent in cotton
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Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity
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