Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January
Because case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states
B40 will require additional 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at highest because mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax trek amidst inflation, Mistry states
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil benchmark rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however costs are expected to stay elevated due to expansion of the nation's biodiesel required, market analysts said.
The palm oil criteria cost in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the compulsory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with an approximated drop of simply over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, provide from somewhere else and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.
"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The price surge in palm oil in the past seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia implements the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said additional feedstock of around 3 million loads will be required for B40 application, eroding export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric heap in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest since mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we have to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer items business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
think about delaying
B40 implementation on issue about its influence on food customers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import duty hike
imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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